Eagle Bank Bowl
Navy vs. Wake Forest
The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital with a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls. The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 YPG,however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.
Recent NAVY Bowl Trends
* NAVY is 4-5 SU & 7-2 ATS in bowl games over the L30 years.
* OVER’s have been the result on total in L4 NAVY bowl games.
* NAVY is 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS in L4 bowl games vs. BCS-conference teams.
Recent WAKE FOREST Bowl Trends
* WAKE FOREST has won four of its L5 bowl games, both SU & ATS.
* The L4 WAKE FOREST bowl games have gone UNDER the total.
* WAKE FOREST has allowed just 13.5 PPG in its L4 bowl games.
Prediction: Navy 24, Wake Forest 20
New Mexico Bowl
FresnoState vs. Colorado State
It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards PA. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves. Colo. State is 1-4 ATS as a dog to go with 4-7 record.
Recent FRESNO ST Bowl Trends
* FRESNO ST is 0-3 SU & ATS in its L3 bowl games when favored.
* The underdog is on amazing run of 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in FRESNO ST bowl games.
* FRESNO ST is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its L3 bowl games vs. non-BCS leagues.
Recent COLORADO ST Bowl Trends
* COLORADO ST is 0-3 SU & ATS in L3 bowl games, losing by 16.3 PPG.
* Favorites hold edge in COLORADO ST bowl games, 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in L9.
* COLORADO ST is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in L6 bowl games as an underdog.
Prediction: Fresno State 38, Colorado State 24
St Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL bowl. The Bulls never came together as
a team and were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in nonconference action. Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6
to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS school only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.
Recent MEMPHIS Bowl Trends
* The favorite has won all four prior lined MEMPHIS bowl games, both SU & ATS.
* The L3 MEMPHIS bowl games have gone OVER the total, averaging 75.7 PPG.
* MEMPHIS has never played a BCS-conference opponent in a bowl game
Recent SOUTH FLORIDA Bowl Trends
* S FLORIDA won its only prior bowl game vs. Conference USA, both SU & ATS.
* S FLORIDA has been outscored 77-45 in three bowl games, going 1-2 SU & ATS.
* Favored team has won SU & ATS in two of three S FLORIDA bowl games.
Prediction: South Florida 38, Memphis 20
Las Vegas Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona
BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up Costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October. The
Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. At press time Arizona was 3-point favorite and is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and
first bowl since 1998.
Recent BYU Bowl Trends
* Favorites have won six straight BYU bowl bowl games, going 4-2 ATS.
* BYU is 1-3 SU & ATS in its L4 bowl games as an underdog.
* UNDER the total is 8-2 in the L10 BYU bowl games.
Recent ARIZONA Bowl Trends
* Arizona has gone UNDER the total in 4 straight bowl games.
* The underdog is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in Arizona’s L5 bowl games.
* Arizona is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in L3 bowl games as favorite.
Prediction: BYU 30, Arizona 24
New Orleans Bowl
Troy vs. Southern Miss
Troy returns to New Orleans Bowl as Sun Belt champs for the second time in three years. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a game at home and 29-20 ATS in non-conference play. Toss aside the fact Troy somehow allowed 30 points to LSU in the fourth quarter, in 15 of the last 16 quarters, they have given up 29 total points. On the topic of doesn’t make sense, Southern Miss had given over 31 points per game in first eight contests. After the embarrassment of losing to Memphis as favorites, surrendering 36 points, the Eagles defense tightened up, permitting just 35 points in last four outings in winning and covering each. USM is 7-5-1 as a bowler with 3-1-1 ATS mark as dog.
Recent TROY Bowl Trends
* 2008 New Orleans Bowl marks the first bowl game in which TROY is favored.
* The total has gone OVER in both of TROY’s previous two bowl games.
* TROY’s bowl win in 2007 also came over a Conference USA school.
Recent SOUTHERN MISS Bowl Trends
* Favorites have won six straight SOUTHERN MISS bowl games, going 3-2-1 ATS.
* UNDER has been the winning total in four of L5 SOUTHERN MISS bowl games.
* SOUTHERN MISS is 3-1 SU & ATS in pre-Christmas Day bowl games.
Prediction: Troy 27, Southern Miss 23
TCU vs. Boise State
Based on quality, instead of TV ratings, this is one of the top 7 bowls of the season. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country, with TCU 2nd and Boise State 3rd in points allowed. The Horned Frogs are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season the last 3 years and two missed field goals away from possibly being in Sugar Bowl. Unbeaten Boise State deserved to be in
Fiesta Bowl again and is 10-2 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. TCU is 10-13-1 in bowls, with 6-3-2 ATS record. Boise State is a more recent development to the postseason action and is 5-3 SU and ATS. Whatever team that finds a way to move the ball or force turnovers will be winner.
Recent TCU Bowl Trends
* TCU is riding a five game ATS winning streak in bowl games (4-1 SU).
* The underdog in TCU bowl games is on a 6-3 ATS run.
* TCU is 5-1 ATS in L6 bowl games vs. non-BCS conference teams.
Recent BOISE ST Bowl Trends
* Boise State has lost three of last four bowl games SU, and is 2-3 ATS in L5.
* Four of L5 Boise State bowl games have gone OVER the total, averaging 74.2 PPG.
* Underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in Boise State bowl games.
Prediction: Boise State 23, TCU 20
Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
It has been well documented Notre Dame has not won a bowl since 1994 Cotton Bowl (0-9, 1-8 ATS) and they will be the only team having to play a true road game this bowl season in Hawaii. After showing early promise, the Irish had no fight late in the
season and are 4-13 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points. Charley Weis hung onto his job by a thread and faces a must win situation to call off the hounds. Hawaii improved as the season progressed, posting a 4-2 SU and ATS mark to finish 2008 campaign. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Hawaii has played mostly at home in this bowl and overall is 5-3 and 4-4 ATS after the regular season.
Recent NOTRE DAME Bowl Trends
* NOTRE DAME has lost nine straight bowl games SU, and is 1-9 ATS in L10.
* NOTRE DAME hasn’t played a non-BCS league bowl foe since prior to ’93.
* The NOTRE DAME offense has averaged just 17.7 PPG in L9 bowl games.
Recent HAWAII Bowl Trends
* HAWAII is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in its L5 bowl games as host.
* The favorite is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in HAWAII’s L4 bowl games.
* HAWAII has yielded at least 24 points in L5 bowl games, averaging 37.8 PPG.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Hawaii 20