Good news! If you’re worried about whether or not your marriage will last, you can consult the “Marriage Calculator” at divorce360.com to see how likely to you are to get a divorce. The brainchild of Betsey Stevenson, an assistant professor of business and public policy at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, the “Marriage Calculator” is based on certain factors:
* When You Married
* Age When You Were Married
* How Many Years You’ve Been Married
For instance, the more education you have, the longer your marriage will last. The younger you are at the time of your marriage, the more likely you are to get divorced. The calculator uses data from the U.S. Census bureau and allows you to compare your background with others who have the same profile as you. It also estimates how many people like you are likely to be divorced within the next five years. However, Stevenson states, “Different types of people face different divorce rates historically.”
G. Cotter Cunningham, CEO of divorce360.com, calls the calculator a “tool for everyone who is thinking of getting married right now.” He continues to say that the calculator can help advise such people, so they can see what percent chance they have of divorcing within the next five years.
Stevenson calls the calculator a “tool to think about hypotheticals.” This is where I have a problem. Everything is hypothetical. Despite the fact that both Cunningham and Stevenson say that everyone is different and that the predicting data is not absolute, they still insist that it should be used as a tool. If every person who was considering marriage were to use this calculator, there would be a lot of brides and grooms with cold feet.
According to the “Marriage Calculator” (which really should be called a “Divorce Calculator”), my marriage has an 10% chance of ending in five years. Even if I had found the calculator before my wedding, would I have used it and taken it seriously? Probably not. The data may be accurate, but the fact remains that a computer can’t make such a decision off the barest of questions when it has no concept of the individuals it is dealing with.
Every person is different and often times they divorce for unseen reasons, not simply because they were young when they got married or because they only received a high school diploma. Outside forces meddle with things, unfortunate circumstances occur and marriages end. But not always for the barest of reasons.
So, is the “Marriage Calculator” something to be taken seriously? By all accounts, the data suggests that it is. However, I would suggest not using it and keep yourself away from worrying thoughts. No marriage is perfect, but its fate shouldn’t be decided by computer data.
50% Divorce Rate For All is Just Not True: New Marriage Calculator Shows the Facts, Market Watch